MCU’s growth history
MCU (Microcontroller Unit), microcontroller, it has a familiar name: microcontroller.
The “real” part of it is that a basic computer system is moved to a chip, which contains a reduced version of CPU, RAM, ROM, I/O, counter, serial port, etc. Although its performance is certainly not as good as a computer in a broad sense, it is low-power, programmable and flexible, so it has a wide range of applications in consumer electronics, medical, industrial, communications, and automotive. industrial, communications, automotive, has a very wide range of applications.
It was born in 1971, Intel designed the world’s first microprocessor – the 4-bit chip numbered 4004, which integrated more than 2,000 transistors, while Intel also designed the 4001, 4002, 4003 chips, respectively, RAM, ROM and registers.
When these four products were launched, Intel wrote in the advertisement “Announcing a new era of integrated circuits: microcomputers condensed on a single chip.” At that time, 8-bit and 16-bit processors were mainly used in small and large computers, so Intel soon launched the 8-bit microprocessor 8008 in 1972 to quickly win the market, which opened the era of single-chip computers.
In 1976, Intel launched the world’s first programmable microcomputer controller 8748, which integrated 8-bit CPU, 8-bit parallel I/O, 8-bit counter, RAM, ROM, etc. internally to meet the needs of general industrial control and instrumentation, etc. With 8748 as the representative, it opened the exploration of microcontroller in the industrial field.
By the 1980s, 8-bit microcontrollers began to become more mature, RAM, ROM capacity increased, generally with a serial interface, but also multi-level interrupt processing system, multiple 16-bit counters, etc. In 1983, Intel launched the MCS-96 series of 16-bit high-performance microcontrollers, the number of internal integrated transistors reached 120,000.
Since the 1990s, MCU has entered the stage of a hundred of competitions, blossoming in all aspects of performance, speed, reliability, and integration. Depending on the number of bits in the bus or data registers, there are 8-bit, 16-bit, 32-bit, and 64-bit microcontrollers from the initial 4-bit gradual development.
Currently, the instruction set of MCU is mainly divided into CISC and RISC, and the core architecture is dominated by ARM Cortex, Intel 8051 and RISC-V.
According to the 2020 China general-purpose microcontroller (MCU) market brief, 32-bit MCU products account for 55% of the market, followed by 8-bit products with 43%, 4-bit products with 2%, and 16-bit products with 1%, which shows that the mainstream products are 32-bit and 8-bit MCUs, and the market space of 16-bit MCUs is seriously squeezed. The market space of 16-bit MCU products is seriously squeezed.
CISC instruction set products accounted for 24% of the market, RISC instruction set products accounted for 76% of the market mainstream products; Intel 8051 core products accounted for 22% of the market, followed by ARM Cortex-M0 products, accounting for 20%, ARM Cortex-M3 products accounted for 14%, ARM Cortex-M4 products accounted for 12% ARM Cortex-M0+ products accounted for 5%, ARM Cortex-M23 products accounted for 1%, RISC-V core products accounted for 1%, and others accounted for 24%. In a comprehensive view, ARM Cortex series cores account for 52% of the market mainstream.
The MCU market has been facing a significant price decline over the past 20 years, but its average selling price (ASP) decline has been slowing down over the past five years. After the automotive industry downturn, the global economic weakness, and the epidemic crisis, the MCU market started to recover from 2020. According to IC Insights data, MCU shipments grew 8% in 2020 and total MCU shipments grew to 12% in 2021, a record high of 30.9 billion units, while ASPs also rose 10%, the highest increase in 25 years.
IC Insights expects MCU shipments to reach 35.8 billion units over the next five years, with total sales of $27.2 billion. Of these, 32-bit MCU sales are expected to reach $20 billion with a compound annual growth rate of 9.4%, 16-bit MCUs are expected to reach $4.7 billion, and 4-bit MCUs are not expected to see growth.
Automotive MCU crazy overtake
Automotive electronics is the largest application scenario for MCUs. IC Insights expects global MCU sales to grow 10% to a record $21.5 billion in 2022, with automotive MCU growth outpacing most other end markets.
Over 40% of MCU sales come from automotive electronics, and automotive MCU sales are expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 7.7% over the next five years, outpacing general-purpose MCUs (7.3%).
Currently, automotive MCUs are mainly 8-bit, 16-bit and 32-bit, and different bits of MCUs play different jobs.
Specifically.
8-bit MCU is mainly used for more basic control functions, such as seat, air conditioning, fan, windows, door control modules and other controls.
16-bit MCU is mainly used for lower body, such as engine, electronic brake, suspension system and other power and transmission system.
The 32-bit MCU fits into the car intelligence and is mainly used for high-end intelligent and safe application scenarios such as cockpit entertainment, ADAS, and body control.
At this stage, 8-bit MCUs are growing in performance and memory capacity, and with their own cost effectiveness, they can replace some 16-bit MCU applications and are also backward compatible with 4-bit MCU applications. The 32-bit MCU will play an increasingly important master control role in the entire automotive E/E architecture, and can manage four scattered low-end and mid-range ECU units, and the number of uses will continue to increase.
The above situation makes the 16-bit MCU in a relatively awkward position, not high but low, but in some application scenarios, it still has a use, such as some key applications of the powertrain.
Automotive intelligence has significantly boosted the demand for 32-bit MCUs. According to the McClean report, in 2021, more than three-quarters of automotive MCU sales will come from 32-bit MCUs, which are expected to reach about $5.83 billion; 16-bit MCUs will generate about $1.34 billion; and 8-bit MCUs will generate about $441 million.
And from the application level, infotainment is the application scenario with the highest year-on-year increase in automotive MCU sales, with 59% growth in 2021 compared to 2020, and 20% revenue growth for the rest of the scenarios.
Now all the electronic control of the car to use ECU (electronic control unit), and MCU is the core control chip of the ECU, each ECU has at least one MCU, so the current stage of the transformation and upgrading of intelligent electrification prompted the demand for MCU single vehicle usage to increase.
According to the data of the Research Department of the Automotive Marketing Expert Committee of the China Marketing Institute, the average number of ECUs carried by ordinary traditional fuel cars is 70, and the number of ECUs carried by luxury traditional fuel cars can reach 150 because of the higher performance requirements for seats, central control and entertainment, body stability and safety, while the average number of ECUs carried by smart cars can reach 300 because of the new hardware and software requirements for autonomous driving and assisted driving. The average number of ECUs in a single vehicle can reach 300 due to the new hardware and software requirements for autonomous driving and assisted driving, and the amount of MCU in a single vehicle will also reach more than 300.
The strong demand for MCUs from automakers will be especially evident in 2021 when there is a shortage of cores due to the epidemic. That year, many car companies had to briefly shut down some production lines due to the lack of cores, but sales of automotive MCUs soared 23% to a record high of $7.6 billion.
Most automotive chips are produced on 8-inch wafers, with some manufacturers such as TI shifting to 12-inch lines, and IDM also outsourcing some of its production capacity to OEM, which is dominated by MCU, with about 70 percent of its capacity covered by TSMC. But the automotive business itself accounts for a very small proportion of TSMC, and TSMC heavy in the field of advanced process technology for consumer electronics, thus making the automotive MCU market is particularly tight.
Automotive chips led by the shortage of goods also let the entire semiconductor industry ushered in a wave of expansion, the major foundries and IDM plants to actively expand production, but the focus varies.
TSMC’s Kumamoto plant is expected to be put into operation by the end of 2024, and in addition to the 22/28nm process, it will further provide 12 and 16nm processes, while the Nanjing plant will expand 28nm and increase its monthly capacity by 40,000 pieces.
SMIC plans to expand production by at least 45,000 8-inch wafers and at least 10,000 12-inch wafers in 2021, and build a 12-inch production line with a monthly capacity of 120,000 wafers in Lingang, focusing on 28nm and above nodes.
Hua Hong expects to accelerate its 12-inch capacity expansion to 94,500 wafers in 2022.
Renesas announced its stake in TSMC’s Kumamoto plant, intends to expand outsourcing, and aims to increase automotive MCU supply by 50% by 2023, with high-end MCU capacity expected to increase by 50% and low-end MCU capacity by about 70% from the end of 2021.
STMicroelectronics will invest $1.4 billion in 2022 for expansion, and plans to double the capacity of its European plants by 2025, mainly increasing 12-inch capacity, for 8-inch capacity, STMicroelectronics will selectively upgrade for products that do not require 12-inch technology.
Texas Instruments will add four new plants, the first plant is expected to be put into operation in 2025, the third and fourth plants will be built between 2026 and 2030.
ON Semiconductor will increase capital investment to 12%, mainly for 12-inch wafer capacity expansion.
IC insights has an interesting data that the ASP of all 32-bit MCUs is declining at a CAGR of -4.4% year-on-year between 2015 and 2020, but rises about 13% to about $0.72 in 2021.
Reflected in the spot market, automotive MCU price fluctuations are more obvious: the standing price of $ 22 NXP 32-bit MCU FS32K144HAT0MLH highest rush to $ 550, the range of more than 20 times, is one of the most scarce automotive chips at the time; Infineon 32-bit automotive MCU SAK-TC277TP-64F200N DC had risen to $ 4,500, an increase of nearly 100 times, the same series of SAK-TC275T-64F200N DC also skyrocketed to more than 2000 yuan.
On the other side, the original hot consumer electronics began to cool down, the demand is weak, as well as the acceleration of domestic substitution, making general-purpose, consumer MCU prices back down, some ST chip models such as F0/F1/F3 series prices to the norm near the price, and even the market rumors that the price of some MCU has fallen through the agency price.
And Renesas, NXP, Infineon, ST and other automotive MCU is still in a relatively shortage of state, such as ST high-performance 32-bit MCU STM32H743VIT6 at the end of last year the offer climbed to 600 yuan, while two years ago its offer was only 48 yuan, an increase of 10 times; Infineon automotive MCU SAK-TC237LP-32F200N AC last October the market price in The market price of Infineon SAK-TC237LP-32F200N AC was around $1200 in October last year, and the offer price was as high as $3800 in December, and even more than $5000 on third-party websites.
This one has become a pop-up and a netflix automotive MCU, and at the same time, it also announces the status of MCU in automotive electronics.
Big market, small domestic market
MCU competition map as the entire semiconductor competitive environment, overseas giants dominate. 2021, the top five MCU manufacturers are NXP, Microchip, Renesas, ST, Infineon, these five MCU manufacturers accounted for 82.1% of global sales, compared to 72.2% in 2016, the size of the head of the enterprise in the past few years more and more growth.
The following are some of the domestic MCU companies.
Automotive MCU market head effect is also significant, compared to consumer and industrial MCU, automotive MCU certification threshold is high, the certification cycle is long, the certification system includes ISO26262 standard certification, AEC-Q001 ~ 004 and IATF16949 standard certification, AEC-Q100 / Q104 Among them, ISO26262 is divided into four levels of ASIL-A to D for automotive functional safety, such as chassis and other scenarios with the highest safety requirements, requiring ASIL-D level certification, and few chip manufacturers can meet the conditions.
According to Strategy Analysis data, the global and domestic automotive MCU market is mainly occupied by NXP, Renesas, Infineon, Texas Instruments and Microchip, with a market share of 85%. China’s MCU manufacturers are mainly concentrated in the low-end and mid-range areas. 32-bit MCUs are still monopolized by overseas giants, but some domestic companies have taken off.
The 32-bit MCUs of Jayflex Technology, BYD Semiconductor, Guoxin Technology, Xinhai Technology, Xinwang Micro, Qipuwei, Saiten Micro and Lingou Chuangxin have all passed the AEC-Q100 certification. The statistics of Guolong Securities show that most of the domestic mass production companies are able to pass the AEC-Q100 certification, but mainly focus on Garde1/3, while very few domestic manufacturers are able to pass the ISO26262 certification, and most of them focus on ASIL-B level.
Conclusion
The rapid development of intelligent electric vehicles has allowed a number of consumer-grade chip makers to join in full, such as Nvidia, Qualcomm and Intel have all made breakthroughs in intelligent cockpits and autonomous driving chips, compressing the living space of the old automotive chip makers. The development of automotive MCU has gone from focusing on self-development and performance improvement to all-round competition for cost reduction while maintaining technical advantages.
With the automotive E / E architecture from distributed to domain control, and ultimately towards central integration, there will be more and more multi-functional simple low-end chip will be replaced, high-performance, high computing power and other high-end chips will become the focus of future automotive chip competition, as the main control role of the MCU by the future ECU number reduction is relatively small, such as the Tesla chassis control ECU, a single contains 3-4 MCU, but Some basic MCUs with simple functions will be integrated. Overall, the market for automotive MCUs in the next few years and the space for domestic substitution is undoubtedly vast.
